There’s a middle road where AI replaces half the juniors or entry level roles, the interns and the bottom rung of the org chart.
In marketing, an AI can effortlessly perform basic duties, write email copy, research, etc. Same goes for programming, graphic design, translation, etc.
The results will be looked over by a senior member, but it’s already clear that a role with 3 YOE or less could easily be substituted with an AI. It’ll be more disruptive than spell check, clearly, even if it doesn’t wipe it 50% of the labor market: even 10% would be hugely disruptive.
Not really though:
1. Companies like savings but they’re not dumb enough to just wipe out junior roles and shoot themselves in the foot for future generations of company leaders. Business leaders have been vocal on this point and saying it’s terrible thinking.
2. In the US and Europe the work most ripe for automation and AI was long since “offshored” to places like India. If AI does have an impact it will wipe out the India tech and BPO sector before it starts to have a major impact on roles in the US and Europe.
To think companies worry about protecting the talent supply chain is to put your fingers in your ears and ignore your eyes for the past 5-10 years. We were already in a crisis of seniority where every single role was “senior only” and AI is only going to increase that.
1. Sure they will! It's a prisoner's dilemma. Each individual company is incentivized to minimize labor costs. Who wants to be the company who pays extra for humans in junior roles and then gets that talent poached away?
2 Yes, absolutely.
As far as 1 goes, how do you explain American deindustrilization and e. g. its auto industry.