Every company should have hired over the pandemic due to there being a higher EV than not hiring. It's like if someone offered an opportunity to pay $1000 for a 50% chance to make $8000, where the outcome is the same between everyone taking the offer. If you are maximizing for the long term everyone should take the offer even if it does result in a reality where everyone loses $1000.
Where did they get the notion that the EV of overhiring was high by any measure?
There is a reality where the COVID boost tech companies had would persist after COVID is over. The small chance of such a future raised the EV.