The concept of the "end of the exponential" sounds like a tech version of Fukuyama's much mocked "End of History". Amodei seems to think we’ll solve all the "useful" problems and then hit a ceiling of utility.
But if you’ve read David Deutsch’s The Beginning of Infinity, Amodei’s view looks like a mistake. Knowledge creation is unbounded. Solving diseases/coding shouldn't result in a plateau, but rather unlock totally new, "better" problems we can't even conceive of yet.
It's the begining of Inifinity, no end in sight!
I really don't see how that is true.
For instance, once you develop atomically precise manufacturing ala Drexler and have a complete model of biology, etc., drive solar panel efficiency to very near the upper theoretical bound for infinitely many junction cells for a raw panel of ~68%, then there isn't really anywhere to go that matters for humans. Material production would be solved, anything you could desire would be manufacturable in minutes to hours, a km^2 of solar panels could power 10-20k people's post-scarcity lives.
You eventually reach the upper bounds on compute efficiency and human upload model efficiency -- unknown but given estimates on upper bound for like rod logic (~1e-34Js/op), reasonably bounds on op speed (100MHz), and low estimates for functional uploading (1e16 flops), you get something in the zone of 0.1nW/upload, or several trillion individuals on 1m^2 of solar panel in space. When you put a simulated Banks Orbital around every star in the Milky Way in a grand sim running on a system of solar panels in space where the entire simulated galaxy has a 15ms ping to any other point in the simulated galaxy, what exactly is this infinite stream of learning? You've pushed technology to the the limits of physical law subject to the constraint of being made of atoms.
Are you envisioning that we'd eventually be doing computation using the entirety of a neutron star or (if they can exist) a quark star? Even then, you eventually hit a wall where physics constrains you from making significant further gains.
There is an ultimate end to the s-curve of technology.
I see your point, however, consider this: to a farmer in 1900, our modern food system is already "end of history" post-scarcity sci-fi. Back then, one farmer fed ~4 people. Today, thanks to automation, GMO and fertilizers, one farmer feeds ~170. We effectively solved the "calorie problem" for the developed world.
But the economy didn't flatline just because we hit THAT manufacturing ceiling. Value simply migrated from manufacturing (growing wheat, assembling cars) to services (Michelin dining, DoorDash, TikTok influencers). Radio did not turn out to be the last useful invention it was predicted to be. Knowledge generation has sped up dramatically.
Your point is fair regarding hardware - eventually you do run out of stars or hit the Landauer limit. But this is exactly Deutsch’s distinction between resources (finite) and knowledge (infinite). Even in a bounded physical system, the "software" (the art, explanations, and social structures) isn't bounded by the clock speed. We don't need infinite atoms to have infinite creativity and knowledge
Not infinity. Only the path to make steady returns in a few short years. Take disease research. Pharmaceutical companies are not interested in curing disease. They would like to treat disease. That means recurring revenue. They would like to focus on the diseases with the most patients to maximize the market for their product. This is why a dozen plus pharma companies are pursuing glp1 while cutting internal r and d jobs and offshoring everything not specifically bolted to this country by the FDA to India.
This is what depressed me as an early career scientist. Money to do the work to advance our species is not being distributed. Only money to generate more money for a sliver of the ownership class is distributed.
The incentives are broken. We aren’t getting Star Trek in our future. We are getting CHOAM.
"Pharmaceutical companies are not interested in curing disease."
In practice, quite a lot of new drugs are curative. Gene therapy, for example, usually fixes the underlying problem once and for all. Even monoclonal antibodies are rarely of the type that needs to be used for the rest of your life.
If you succeed in putting someone's cancer into remission, that patient has to be monitored for the rest of their life, but they usually don't consume any expensive drugs anymore. The expenses are more on the necessary personnel side.
There is this unpleasant fact that most chronic diseases worsen in the last 2 decades of our lives, when our systems are already seriously dysregulated by aging. Hard to fix anything reliably in a house that is already halfway down.
How many gene therapies are approved vs treatments?
>Pharmaceutical companies are not interested in curing disease. They would like to treat disease
This is nonsense. Pharma are never in a position where they can choose between curing and treating. 90% of clinical trials fail. Pharma is throwing things at the wall and picking whatever sticks.
Then explain the herd mentality if they were truly all trying all posibilities. No, same old same old. Pharma is not removed from the usual incentives of capitalism. FWIW the line about treatments not cures is pretty much a direct quote from a product manager at a major pharma company I heard speak at an internal presentation. Straight from the horses mouth.
"Is curing patients a sustainable busines model?" - Goldman 2018
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/goldman-sachs-asks-in-bi...
Many of the biggest medical innovations have come from publicly funded university researchers, which then license or give away their findings to private businesses.
Haven't watched the video, but the end of exponential growth isn't the end of growth. It means the percentage growth per year decreases. The Internet also went through an exponential growth phase at the beginning.
You're describing a standard S-curve (logistic growth), which is definitely what happens to parameter counts or user adoption (like The Internet). But Amodei is applying this to scientific discovery itself. He’s effectively saying the "S-curve of Science" flatlines because we figure out everything that matters (curing aging, mental health, etc.). My whole point was that science doesn't have a top to the S-curve - it’s an infinite ladder (as per Deutsch).
>the end of exponential growth
we're on the verge of getting to Moon and Mars in more than rare tourist numbers and with notable payloads. Add to that advancements in robotics, which will change things here on Earth as well as in space. The growth is only starting.
>The Internet also went through an exponential growth phase at the beginning.
If we consider general Internet as all the devices connected i think the exponential growth is still on as for example ARM CPUs shipments:
> we're on the verge of getting to Moon and Mars in more than rare tourist numbers
Cross-country full-self driving, too
I was thinking about user traffic, but sure, it depends what you look at.