Pedantic, you don't know the distribution, so the chance could be higher

The reduction was specifically to the in-window side of the edge, so it's definitely greater than 14%.

Interesting, I've always approached from the outside in.

I approach from whatever side the mouse happens to be on...

never thought about it before but after playing with it a while i notice i tend to approach from the right, which means moving out if i'm inside on the right side. i think this is because my positioning accuracy seems to be higher moving leftwards than rightwards...

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We can safely assume they're more likely to be close to the edge they're trying to grab than some random location on the window

Aim wider: why window and not screen?