Nvidia seems cooked.
Google is crushing them on inference. By TPUv9, they could be 4x more energy efficient and cheaper overall (even if Nvidia cuts their margins from 75% to 40%).
Cerebras will be substantially better for agentic workflows in terms of speed.
And if you don't care as much about speed and only cost and energy, Google will still crush Nvidia.
And Nvidia won't be cheaper for training new models either. The vast majority of chips will be used for inference by 2028 instead of training anyway.
Nvidia has no manufacturing reliability story. Anyone can buy TSMC's output.
Power is the bottleneck in the US (and everywhere besides China). By TPUv9 - Google is projected to be 4x more energy efficient. It's a no-brainer who you're going with starting with TPUv8 when Google lets you run on-prem.
These are GW scale data centers. You can't just build 4 large-scale nuclear power plants in a year in the US (or anywhere, even China). You can't just build 4 GW solar farms in a year in the US to power your less efficient data center. Maybe you could in China (if the economics were on your side, but they aren't). You sure as hell can't do it anywhere else (maybe India).
What am I missing? I don't understand how Nvidia could've been so far ahead and just let every part of the market slip away.
> let every part of the market slip away.
Which part of the market has slept away, exactly ? Everything you wrote is supposition and extrapolation. Nvidia has a chokehold on the entire market. All other players still exist in the small pockets that Nvidia doesn’t have enough production capacity to serve. And their dev ecosystem is still so far ahead of anyone else. Which providers gets chosen to equip a 100k chips data center goes so far beyond the raw chip power.
If code is getting cheaper, making cuda alternatives and tooling should not be very far. I can’t see nvidia holding the position for much longer.
> Nvidia has a chokehold on the entire market.
You're obviously not looking at expected forward orders for 2026 and 2027.
I think most estimates have Nvidia at more or less stable share of CoWoS capacity (around 60%), which is ~doubling in '26.
> What am I missing?
Largest production capacity maybe?
Also, market demand will be so high that every player's chips will be sold out.
> Largest production capacity maybe?
Anyone can buy TSMC's output...
Which I'm sure is 100% reserved through at least 2030.
Aren't they building new fabs, though? Or even those are already booked?
Can anyone buy TSMC though?
No. TSMC will not take the risk on allocating capacity to just anyone given the opportunity cost.
Not without an army
Man I hope someone drinks Nvidia's milk shake. They need to get humbled back to the point where they're desperate to sell gpus to consumers again.
Only major road block is cuda...
What puzzles me is that AMD can't secure any meaningful size of AI market. They missed this train badly.
> What am I missing?
VRAM capacity given the Cerebras/Groq architecture compared to Nvidia.
In parallel, RAM contracts that Nvidia has negotiated well into the future that other manufacturers have been unable to secure.
I believe they licensed smth from groq
Well they `acquired` groq for a reason.