I think a lot of people, regardless of whether they vibe code or not are going to be replaced by a cheaper sollution. A lot of software that would've required programmers before can now be created by tech savy employees in their respective fields. Sure it'll suck, but it's not like that matters for a lot of software. Software Engineering and Computer Science aren't going away, but I suspect a lot of programming is.
Ah yes, like no-code programming in the past, or what was it called again?
It's called Excel, and there's probably more logic written in it driving the world economy than in all the rest of the programming languages combined.
I've been around for a while. The closest we ever got was probably RPA. This time it's different. In my organisation we have non-programmers writing software that brings them business value on quite a large scale. Right now it's mainly through the chat framework we provide them so that they aren't just spamming data into chatGPT or similar. A couple of them figured out how to work the API and set up their own agents though.
Most of it is rather terrible, but a lot of the times it really doesn't matter. At least most of it scales better than Excel, and for the most part they can debug/fix their issues with more prompts. The stuff that turns out to matter eventually makes it to my team, and then it usually gets rewritten from scratch.
I think you underestimate how easy it is to get something to work well enough with AI.