I just realized the inverse of Pascal’s wager applies to negative AI hype.
- If you believe it and it’s wrong, you lose.
- If you believe it and it’s right, you spent your final days in a panic.
- If you don’t believe it and it’s right, you spent your final days in blissful ignorance.
- If you don’t believe it and it’s wrong, you can go on living.
Of course this is subject to a similar rebuttal to Pascal's Wager (Consider a universe in which the deity punishes all believers):
What if a capricious super-intelligence takes over that punishes everyone who didn't buy into the hype?
I will not believe in U-4484, aka Roko's Hype Basilisk. It cannot see me if I do not believe in it.