> Consequently AWS (and I presume others) will run models supplied by the AI companies for you in their data centres. They won't be doing that at a loss, so the price will cover marginal cost of the compute plus renting the model.

This says absolutely nothing.

Extremely simplified example: let's say Sonnet 4.5 really costs $17/1M output for AWS to run yet it's priced at $15. Anthropic will simply have a contract with AWS that compensates them. That, or AWS is happy to take the loss. You said "they won't be doing that at a loss" but in this case it's not at all out of the question.

Whatever the case, that it costs the same on AWS as directly from Anthropic is not an indicator of unit economics.