Timing is obviously always the issue. When Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance '96 in regards to the .com bubble, the Nasdaq proceeded to go up almost another 4x in price and it didn't crash for 3 more years.
I know the question is tongue-in-cheek, but I think it’s a fascinating question, so I’ll take it seriously. If you predict the crash and it happens two years later, i think you basically cannot profit off that guess, so I’d say no. Although i haven’t provided data for the two-year claim, there certainly exists some period N for which the prediction no longer pays off, given a fixed drop. But if you can predict it 6 months in advance, you probably could profit! I think a certain amount of annoying repetition is fine for profitability.
If a company has a fundamentally good business model, I can just buy the stock and forget about it for years. I wish there were something equivalent for companies with bad business models. You can't just short something and come back ten years later to check the price.
real's estate been flat for a number of years now in half the country, down even in some parts. not a crash perse, but certainly a bad investment and starkly different from situation 4-5 years ago.
Timing is obviously always the issue. When Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance '96 in regards to the .com bubble, the Nasdaq proceeded to go up almost another 4x in price and it didn't crash for 3 more years.
I know the question is tongue-in-cheek, but I think it’s a fascinating question, so I’ll take it seriously. If you predict the crash and it happens two years later, i think you basically cannot profit off that guess, so I’d say no. Although i haven’t provided data for the two-year claim, there certainly exists some period N for which the prediction no longer pays off, given a fixed drop. But if you can predict it 6 months in advance, you probably could profit! I think a certain amount of annoying repetition is fine for profitability.
If a company has a fundamentally good business model, I can just buy the stock and forget about it for years. I wish there were something equivalent for companies with bad business models. You can't just short something and come back ten years later to check the price.
Yes and thank you in advance
ZeroHedge has correctly predicted two hundred of the last two recessions ;-)
ZeroHedge can stay irrational far longer than you can stay sane.
There's a real estate YouTube channel that's been calling for a real estate downturn for like 8 years (pre-Pandemic). Eventually they'll be right.
real's estate been flat for a number of years now in half the country, down even in some parts. not a crash perse, but certainly a bad investment and starkly different from situation 4-5 years ago.