In the USA, the claim has to be convincing to a judge, so it’s not quite as arbitrary as you indicate.

In order for ICE to raid homes they need to have a valid warrant signed by a judge, but that doesn't seem to be stopping them in Minneapolis doing warrantless raids.

They're supposed to. They've been breaking into homes without them.

The current administration is utterly lawless.

That is relatively minor compared to ICE shooting protestors and then stopping people from giving them medical attention.

Clearly, the bar for it to be convincing seems quite low here

How do you know what papers the judge saw when issuing the warrant?

I was not aware that the filings were public.