In one of the scenarios programmers get replaced then the progress slows, thus saving jobs of writers, lawyers, marketing, scientists, artists. At this point I am okay with that scenario seeing how programmers have showed no solidarity while every other field has been rejecting AI. Lawyers have even started hiring junior lawyers back and Art industry has basically shoved AI into a bin of irrelevance.
> Art industry
I don't agree, unless by "art industry" what you actually mean is "art establishment".
If we broaden it to mean "anywhere that money is paid, or used to be paid, to people for any kind of artistic endeavor" - even if we limit that to things related to drawing, painting, illustrating, graphic design, 3d design etc. - then AI is definitely replacing or augmenting a ton of human work. Just go on any Photoshop forum. It's all about AI now, just like everywhere else.