In my experience the latest models (Opus 4.5, GPT 5.2) Are _just_ starting to keep up with the problems I'm throwing at them, and I really wish they did a better job, so I think we're still 1-2 years away from local models not wasting developer time outside of CRUD web apps.
Eh, these things are trained on existing data. The further you are from that the worse the models get.
I've noticed that I need to be a lot more specific in those cases, up to the point where being more specific is slowing me down, partially because I don't always know what the right thing is.
For sure, and I guess that's kind of my point -- if the OP says local coding models are now good enough, then it's probably because he's using things that are towards the middle of the distribution.
similar for me —- also how do you get the proper double dashes —- anyway, I’d love to be able to run CLI agents fully local, but I don’t see it being good enough (relative to what you can get for pretty cheap from SOTA models) anytime soon