Chomsky's talking about predictive models in the context of cognitive science. LLMs aren't really a predictive model of any aspect of human cognitive function.

The generation of natural language is an aspect of human cognition, and I'm not aware of any better model for that than current statistical LLMs. The papers mapping between EEG/fMRI/etc. and LLM activations have been generally oversold so far, but it's active area of research for good reason.

I'm not saying LLMs are a particularly good model, just that everything else is currently worse. This includes Chomsky's formal grammars, which fail to capture the ways humans actually use language per Norvig's many examples. Do you disagree? If so, what model is better and why?

I’m not really sure what you’re getting at. Could you point to some papers exemplifying the kind of work that you’re thinking of? Of course there are lots of people training LLMs and other statistical models on EEG data, but that does not show that, say, GPT-5, is a good model of any aspect of human cognition.

Chomsky, of course, never attempted to model the generation of natural language and was interested in a different set of problems, so LLMs are not really a competitor in that domain anyway (even if you take the dubious step of accepting them as scientific models).

I certainly don’t agree with Norvig, but he doesn’t really understand the basics of what Chomsky is trying to do, so there is not much to respond to. To give three specific examples, he is (i) confused in thinking that Gold’s theorem has anything to do with Chomsky’s arguments, (ii) appears to think that Chomsky studied the “generation of language” because he he’s read so little of Chomsky’s work that he doesn’t know what a “generative grammar” is, and (iii) believes that Chomsky thinks that natural languages are formal languages in which every sentence is either clearly in the language or not (again because he’s barely read anything that Chomsky wrote since the 1950s). Then, just to make absolutely sure not to be taken seriously, he compares Chomsky to Bill O’Reilly!