There is a simpler explanation - HVAC jobs are directly influenced by the push to covert everything to heat-pumps. And good heat-pumps are expensive. So when you install a $15K to $25K, installation fee also goes up. I am surprised Solar isn't up there. Panels are cheap, install is what we pay for 10 years+

It's not even that. It's that rich people are the only thing the trades are catering to now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qT_uSJVCYds

Example of a solar install that was under $20k via DIY - maybe took this guy 1-2 weeks of full-time work. But he was quoted $90k and he did most of it himself - only hiring a backhoe operator to move some dirt around.

We're at the point where the trades are only going to cater to rich/desperate people because the margin they'd make on a job that is DIY-able (and charged a fair price) is not worth it to them. Why do 5-6 low margin jobs when you can do 1 high margin (rip-off) job? Your only competition out there is someone with the will to do it. Builders in CA are massive ripoffs as well.

I think the only way you bring costs from trades down is by having all your workers in-house - which is only doable for corporations. Your average homeowner is just fucked and is gonna have to youtube everything.

What I'm seeing is trades workers basically don't want small one off jobs because you waste so much time on the overheads unrelated to the actual work. If someone has a hole in the wall they need patched, you're spending time answering the phone, estimating the price, driving there, billing the customer, etc. And a lot of jobs are very one off and difficult to evaluate the price.

Why even bother when you could just work for a mass build and plaster up hundreds of walls in a single job on a new apartment building or housing development.

So as an individual it's almost impossible to get someone over to do a small job, and your only realistic option is to do it yourself.

Most of the tradesmen around me won't even get out of bed for less than $1,000. They really don't want piddly little jobs from us peasants. I've started DIY'ing almost everything I need to do around the house because if you call an electrician, he'll quote you a $2,000 "go away" price because he's busy doing $50K new construction jobs.

I don't really know how this is any different now from the 1990s. I think there is a sense of bottom level on price they'll take for a job due to litigation/insurance concerns. But, handymen are what should be doing a lot of these jobs. I do think there is another concern about quality of workmanship as well. You take on these small jobs, one goes poorly - you take a huge hit on your reputation comparatively and have to fight to get small jobs even more than before. That wasn't as big of a concern before the internet made everyone's reputation so important. Losing one customer wasn't losing the whole market - whereas it is now. A few negative reviews can permanently tank your business.

> It's that rich people are the only thing the trades are catering to now.

This is my gut feeling too. I've known so many rich people who just accept whatever number a tradesperson quotes. There is no way that hasn't had a mass effect

I'm not rich (or at least, don't feel rich with the enormous cost increases on everything combined with no promotions for 3 years) -- but how do you negotiate with a tradesperson exactly?

All of the major trade companies around where I live (HVAC, plumbing, electrical etc.) in the US have rates that they quote before the person will even show up. As a new homeowner who didn't grow up in the US, that's all I've ever dealt with.

If the answer is “Give them a number you're comfortable with, and just DIY it as an alternative” -- that's fine, and I do it for anything simple; but for the remaining ones, I have already made a determination that learning this skill would be way more in terms of time invested than the $500 or whatever absurd number they are quoting for a simple repair (this logic likely breaks down over time, and I'm trying to invest more time into learning more house repairs).

I have tried pre-purchasing some parts in the past; and asking them to use them for the install -- that one had some success and a guy told me how much his company marks up parts (n00%).

I do try to get multiple quotes for something, but the difference between them isn't usually appreciable; they're all absurdly high. I've tried to ask them for a parts v/s labor breakdown in the past; some won't even provide that.

If it is a company with more than 2 or 3 employees you are already going to be given a significant markup right off the bat for their marketting and commercial office expenses and have obfuscated costs, individual contractors have lower overhead. Location is also important, if I gotta drive an hour each way for a job that is going into the price. Getting legit parts, especially with short notice, also costs more. While I might buy a $8 ignitor on amazon for my own furnace or a friends, I cant risk crappy counterfit parts for regular customers that might blow up in a week so now its a $35+ part.

Buying your own parts can help but can also burn you if its wrong, or cost the same if something extra is needed that wasnt expected and requires a second visit or bought on short notice from a local parts dealer. A contractor often eats the costs of wrong parts they ordered and just hopes they can use it elsewhere later, but if you bought the parts that is just cost on you.

My recommendation, which is still probably of limited help and won't always be worth it, is to start by hiring a local handyman instead of a specialist and having atleast 2 weeks of lead time for parts. Of course finding a worthwhile handyman can have its own difficulties because so many tradesmen leave the industry after realizing corporate contracting pays workers like trash while taking a lot of the most valuable and worthwhile contracting work off the market from independent contractors.

You'd need to be negotiating with an actual tradesperson, not someone who is a glorified salesperson / unskilled installer who works for a company that has been acquired in a PE rollup.

The easiest way to find a good tradesman is to ask another tradesman. There is an HVAC person in my local area who will come out and do most jobs (such as, for example, moving an AC) for about $500. A PE rollup firm would quote $10k for such jobs.

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There was definitely a period from I guess the 80s but definitely the mid 90s to before COVID where the average joe could afford a tradesperson for the bigger things when needed, which are now prohibitively expensive

I feel everyone is competing with a 5-10 dumb rich people who don't batter an eye lid at a job quoted at 20x the materials. I feel people used to have some more morals too on the supply side of that labour, but you can't blame them for chasing the money.

Good mini splits aren't expensive. They're expensive because HVAC installers are fleecing US consumers.

A majority of mini splits are made in China and are inexpensive and reliable because they're so pervasive in Asia. Most are rebadged Midea or Gree.

You can get a decent mini split for <1.5K and install it yourself for $200 in tools.

I acquired a minisplit for $450 or so (labelled "For export only - not for sale in US or Canada", because it contained R-410 and doesn't meet the current efficiency standards) and installed it myself.

Getting a similar system installed would have been north of $10,000, and before anyone says "well, that would be a licenced HVAC installer", no it wouldn't - it would be a barely-trained person who is simply "supervised" by a licenced HVAC technician.

If it was so lucrative, wouldn’t more people set up shop undercutting the current offerings? Why not become an HVAC installer and make millions, if you’re really able to make $15k profit on a job you can turn out in a day.

The truth is probably more that the various money sinks in our society are starting to add up, things like healthcare, legal protection, licensure, compliance, rent (business or personal), even just having appropriate work vehicles, fueling them, compensating people for the time spent sitting in traffic to come across town to your house. Somehow you’re paying for all of that when someone’s livelihood is installing your mini split. A lot of those costs have grown faster than wages, if you try to point to a reason why it’s different today than 20 years ago. More people looking to make a quick buck without doing any work or providing any real value, and more people succeeding.

In my state (OR) it takes 4 years to become licensed to do the work for others but homeowners can do the work themselves.

My experience is that it’s not generally well understood how simple it is to install mini splits. The supply companies won’t sell to you directly outside of d2c web companies like hvacdirect

My state has a program where they give you big rebates but only if you use some one on their list of approved installers and since there aren't many installers it creates a big backlog. Homeowners who could install them themselves miss out on the rebate.

In Seattle, installing AC requires a refrigeration permit, which requires a refrigeration contractor license to pull and a licensed HVAC tech to install, which takes 4+ years of training.

It is expensive, but I think you're underestimating the costs.

If the AC catches fire because your electrician skills are bad, what happens? I guess you can rent a ladder if you need one, but they're at least $200 if your split is on the second floor and ladders can be deceptively tricky, and load ratings must be considered. Condensation can kill you and be an extreme cost with mold. Your first mini split is going to take a real long time to install, I promise, assuming you size it right. There is a non trivial risk to life and limb.

This is one of those "Reality has a surprising amount of detail" things.

If you're not comfortable with the electrical work, hire an electrician.

Of course don't DIY it if you're not comfortable, but a simple exterior wall install is fairly straightforward. On a second floor install, (with the condenser on the ground) you only need a small egress hole you can drill from the interior. You'd need a ladder just to secure/cover the lineset.

Catches fire? The amount of electrical work with installing a minisplit is minimal. And HVAC technicians are not electricians, either.

The skill involved is that of tightening screws on screw terminals.

You're gonna plug it into the outlet? its going to probably need a circuit at the breaker.

An AC is a heat pump too.

I don't know what the deal is about people saying heat pumps are expensive. They used to be a little pricier than AC units, but it's just a 4-way valve in addition to one.

I just looked it up, and I can buy a heat pump for 200-400 euros (depending on desired output), installation is ~400 euros. Why are you paying 20-30x for something identical? This sounds like a price difference created by government behavior, like with solar panels and related hardware which seem to be significantly overpriced in north america.

> This sounds like a price difference created by government behavior

It's a price difference created by market segmentation of heat pumps as a luxury product in the US, and the relative lack of qualified installers due to our under-investment in education in the trades.

Is this some country specific terminology? At least in Australia I've never seen an air conditioner that didn't use heat pump technology. Aside from evaporative cooling that is.

Air conditioners (the things that can make a room colder, but not hotter), are indeed heat pumps, but in the US when we refer to a "heat pump" we mean the same technology, but with a reversing valve so that it can make rooms both colder and hotter.

Interesting. I’ve never seen one that couldn’t heat and cool before. Even crusty 30 year old window units can do both. Seems almost absurd to not utilise it both ways.

You have to specifically look for cooling only AC where I am. Most ACs come with heat-dehumidify-cool mode selection and therefore qualify as "heat pumps", as far as how the term is used. I think it's just quirks of regions that traditionally didn't have ACs by default.

A Heat pump is just AC with more valves.