Is there any proof that countries who agree to these accords are cheating behind closed doors?
As far as I can tell it would be a relatively straightforward thing to measure (how else are we getting these per country reports on emissions?)
Given that, I’d expect it to become obvious if they are cheating the accords.
And as far as markets go, I believe quite strongly that’s a failure of our economic system. It fails to account for externalities appropriately. If things were priced with externalities accounted for it would change consumption patterns dramatically
> Is there any proof that countries who agree to these accords are cheating behind closed doors?
Is there any evidence these aren't a fig leaf? What kind of leverage does this give countries to penalize others in the event of a broken agreement?
> What kind of leverage does this give countries to penalize others
In the case of China, it's pushed them to make headway in the process of building a manufacturing infrastructure that is more insulated from global energy price swings. IIRC they can also power much of it more cheaply (e.g. solar has no fuel cost), which provides them with a cost advantage.
As we have repeatedly seen, there is also leverage to be had in not having one's country internally levered to global oil prices.
So it provides leverage, but not to directly penalize.
It's not clear these "climate talks" have anything to do with China's domestic movements.