You can self sign without a developer account and self distribute and all it does is notify the user that the software is from the internet the first time they run it. They can still use the app. If it is completely unsigned, users may have to bypass gatekeeper, but that is just a setting.
If you want to sign using a cert trusted by apple, and distribute on their infrastructure, you do need a paid account.
This seems like a reasonable compromise, quite honestly. That is based on remembering the bad old days of just having to trust that the software you downloaded from some random shareware site hadn't been modified maliciously.
99% of users are not going to understand why they can't just double click the app to run it. And the second they see macOS gaslight them into thinking self-signed applications are radioactive biohazards via scary warnings, they aren't going to take additional complicated steps to run the app they wanted to run in the first place.
Users will just assume the app is broken, a virus or that you're a hacker, all because of the way macOS treats apps from developers who didn't pay the Apple tax or submit the app to Apple's panopticon for approval.
Users should not have to know some cursed and arcane ritual to run the apps they want to run.
I think a little informative friction letting novice users know they are choosing to load/launch without Apple Store protections is reasonable.
However, any attempt by Apple to scare vs. just inform/confirm would be a dark pattern we don’t need.