So are we going to download APKs from fDroid to our computers and then adb install them to our phones? For every update? I see a lot of people, even developers, giving up.

This actually seems worse from a security perspective to me than allowing installing apps on device.

Your email client from F-Droid has an RCE? Too bad - better hope you update manually!

You can run adb from the phone itself via wireless debugging. From what I understand, you can do this via Shizuku or Termux, and there are apps that can give you a user interface for this. What changes is that users have to enable developer mode to get this, which adds another warning label. Although admittedly they may remove this feature or add more hoops to jump through to use it.

Wireless debugging not only requires an initial setup, but it also requires being connected to a Wi-Fi network to work. Considering the number of Android users in countries where many don't have Wi-Fi, it's not an option for many.

There's also the problem of some banking apps refusing to work if developer tools are enabled.

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This is what people defending this are overlooking. While it may still be technically possible to sideload apps, the additional barriers to entry will be enough to push at least some app developers away from Android development. So while it is possible for some users to avoid direct impacts of this change, the overall fallout will be unavoidable.