You are bang on.

Every AI company right now (except Google Meta and Microsoft) has their valuations based on the expectation of a future monopoly on AGI. None of their business models today or in the foreseeable horizon are even positive let alone world-dominating. The continued funding rounds are all apparently based on expectation of becoming the sole player.

The continuing advancement of open source / open weights models keeps me from being a believer.

I’ve placed my bet and feel secure where it is.