That is a common refrain by people who have no domain expertise in anything outside of tech.
Spend a few years in an insurance company, a manufacturing plant, or a hospital, and then the assertion that the frontier labs will figure it out appears patently absurd. (After all, it takes humans years to understand just a part of these institutions, and they have good-functioning memory.)
This belief that tier 5 is useless is itself a tell of a vulnerability: the LLMs are advancing fastest in domain-expertise-free generalized technical knowledge; if you have no domain expertise outside of tech, you are most vulnerable to their march of capability, and it is those with domain expertise who will rely increasingly less on those who have nothing to offer but generalized technical knowledge.
yeah but if Anthropic/OpenAI dedicate resources to gaining domain expertise then any tier 5 is dead in the water. For example, they recently hired a bunch of finance professionals to make specialized models for financial modeling. Any startup in that space will be wiped out
I dont think the claim is exactly that tier 5 is useless more that tier 5 synergizes so well with tier 4 that all the popular tier 5 products will eventually be made by the tier 4 companies.