I don’t think I can take that claim by itself as necessarily implying the cause is hardware. Consumer OSes were on the verge of getting protected memory at that time, as an example of where things were, so if I imagine “take an old application and try to run it” then I am immediately imagining software problems, and software bit rot is a well-known thing. If the claim is “try to run Windows 95 on bare metal”, then…well actually I installed win98 on a new PC about 10 years ago and it worked. When I try to imagine hardware changes since then that a kernel would have to worry about, I’m mostly coming up with PCI Express and some brave OEMs finally removing BIOS compatibility and leaving only UEFI. I’m not counting lack of drivers for modern hardware as “hardware still changes” because that feels like a natural consequence of having multiple vendors in the market, but maybe I could be convinced that is a fundamental change in and of itself…however even then, that state of things was extremely normalized by the 2000s.