But you can't fake profits that way (without cooking the books); you can only fake revenue. That's why profits matter.
Though I guess with high velocity of money circulating in tight loops, everyone involved can feel rich. 1 million dollars changing hands once per day can potentially mint 365 'millionaires' during the course of a year. If they just pass it back and forth among themselves to buy each other's stocks and products and don't let that money escape their network to actually pay for something useful, they can all be millionaires... On paper.
Not to mention how relatively small amounts of money, moving at high velocity, can inflate asset prices... On Alice's birthday, Bob can buy 100 shares of Alice's shell company at a price of $10 per share. If Alice owns 1 million shares of the company (which she founded), it means that Alice's net worth is at least $10 million... It cost Bob only $1000 to give Alice a net worth of $10 million. Now imagine that same $1000 moving in and out of that company's stock, traded 1000 times per day between various people. With just $1000 circulating back-and-forth at high frequency (A.K.A. high-frequency trading), you can generate a trade volume of $1 million per day... So it all seems reasonable; a company with a $10 million valuation with $1 million daily trade volume... Nothing suspicious. So you can basically start a shell company and fake everything; from the market cap, to the trade volume; using only a relatively small amount of money. This is what they were doing in the early days of crypto.
The same money can hop around in circles between an insane number of people when it's just 'revenue' because revenue is not taxed (after expenses). Only profits are taxed... But the same money, as profit, can barely hop between 6 people before it's taxed down to just 10% of its original number. High-velocity revenue can severely distort people's perceptions of the market, especially in the era of media filter bubbles.
You can fake profits. Company A hands $1m to company B to buy equity in it. Company B hands the $1m to A to run ads on A.
Under GAAP (normal accounting) A has a profit.
In reality are they profiting? Who knows - it depends how A does as a business.
In the very short term yeah, but in the long term GAAP still sniffs this out. Eventually Company A will need to use some form of mark to market valuation to assign a value to that $1M they invested. If Company B is a dumpster fire then eventually the $1M investment will be worth much less (or zero) and balance is restored to the world.
You see companies hand waving this sort of thing away on earnings calls when they have a really bad quarter but the CEO is blowing smoke at shareholders saying “On non-GAAP this was an amazing corner.” Which is code speak for “that terrible decision I made a few quarters ago is coming home to roost and our lawyers have said I need to reflect that on our books. If you ignore where we screwed up badly, our numbers look good!”
Damn. Didn't think of that. Seems I have a very naive definition of 'profit'.
It's crazy how all these small subtleties in definitions of various terms can create something so abominable in the aggregate. Makes one want to reach for a tinfoil hat. Not sure I can even trust the company which makes the tinfoil at this point.
Dunno about naive but it's more complicated than you might think.
> it means that Alice's net worth is at least $10 million...
Some people might interpret or represent the aforementioned transaction as justification for thinking Alice's net worth is at least $10M, but it is not an objective measure of Alice's purchasing power (as it would be in the case that Alice had $10M cash).
>The same money can hop around in circles between an insane number of people when it's just 'revenue' because revenue is not taxed (after expenses). Only profits are taxed
On the US federal level. Not sure about other countries, but quite a few other governments in the US do tax revenue.
https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/state-corporate-inc...
>Nevada, Ohio, Texas, and Washington impose gross receipts taxes instead of corporate income taxes. Delaware, Oregon, and Tennessee impose gross receipts taxes in addition to their corporate income taxes. Some localities in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia likewise impose gross receipts taxes, which are generally understood to be more economically harmful than corporate income taxes.
See also:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_receipts_tax