You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring
Damage is unavoidable, we can only hope that it happens to someone deserving. Innocent individuals and pension funds still have time to retreat; if they don't it will be their fault.
We are moving towards gerontocracy - if pension funds will have large losses it’s very likely that young, working age people will be taxed extra heavily to keep the QOL of pensioners.
That would likely lead to a revolution: Millennials are 30-45 and they’re not in a good place; neither is Gen Z.
We’re already seeing revolutions elsewhere — and it’s likely that trying to loot them further by generations who sold out the nation will simply lead to social collapse.
Yes but this is by design. Wealthy people want bubbles, when they pop, you can gobble up all the value at all time lows. Then you hold until you don't feel like it anymore as the market goes back to growing. You see this as how private equity has bought up real estate across the USA to turn into rentals after 2008, for example.
Aren’t extremely wealthy people that wealthy due to the valuation of their stock? IIRC generally the higher the networth, the higher share is kept in stocks
I suspect $$ is just a number for them. Being able to control more resources is the ultimate game. You gotta have zillions of $$ to join the tournament, though.
I doubt, or at least hope, that no sort of managed fund for retirement (read: low risk) is going 15% on AI stuff. Regardless of what one thinks might happen, it has to be accepted at this is an obviously very high risk bet, because this all is screaming bubble even more than the era of 'zomg i flipped this house i financed on an insta-approved loan, installed granite counter tops, and walked away with $20k profit in 4 days.'
> If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize
Only if those are the only actual real customers. It's not. The pie is a lot bigger. And with the current hype some other AI company will just take over and the bubble will continue.
You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring
Damage is unavoidable, we can only hope that it happens to someone deserving. Innocent individuals and pension funds still have time to retreat; if they don't it will be their fault.
We are moving towards gerontocracy - if pension funds will have large losses it’s very likely that young, working age people will be taxed extra heavily to keep the QOL of pensioners.
That would likely lead to a revolution: Millennials are 30-45 and they’re not in a good place; neither is Gen Z.
We’re already seeing revolutions elsewhere — and it’s likely that trying to loot them further by generations who sold out the nation will simply lead to social collapse.
Yes but this is by design. Wealthy people want bubbles, when they pop, you can gobble up all the value at all time lows. Then you hold until you don't feel like it anymore as the market goes back to growing. You see this as how private equity has bought up real estate across the USA to turn into rentals after 2008, for example.
Aren’t extremely wealthy people that wealthy due to the valuation of their stock? IIRC generally the higher the networth, the higher share is kept in stocks
I suspect $$ is just a number for them. Being able to control more resources is the ultimate game. You gotta have zillions of $$ to join the tournament, though.
They can move their wealth from stocks to gold, for example. Look at the price of gold.
Wealthy people are extremely well diversified. Their main risk exposure is to variables that effect the entire market - e.g interest rates.
Perhaps most of the impact could be burdened on NVIDIA investors, employees, leadership, or OpenAI investors, employees, leadership, etc., etc.
Sure who cares if we wipe out 15% of everyone’s retirement right as long as it’s got some schadenfreude involved.
I doubt, or at least hope, that no sort of managed fund for retirement (read: low risk) is going 15% on AI stuff. Regardless of what one thinks might happen, it has to be accepted at this is an obviously very high risk bet, because this all is screaming bubble even more than the era of 'zomg i flipped this house i financed on an insta-approved loan, installed granite counter tops, and walked away with $20k profit in 4 days.'
But probably they will invest in the sp500, and tech companies make a big portion of the sp 500 and these tech companies also happen to be big in AI
> If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize
Only if those are the only actual real customers. It's not. The pie is a lot bigger. And with the current hype some other AI company will just take over and the bubble will continue.