I do wonder if CISC might make a comeback. One is cache efficiency.
If you are doing many-core (NOT multi-core) than RISC make obvious sense.
If you are doing in-order pipelined execution, than RISC makes-sense.
But if you are doing superscalar out-of-order where you have multiple execution units and you crack instructions anyway, why not have CISC so that the you have more micro-ops to reorder and optimise? It seems like it would give the schedulers more flexibility to keep the pipelines fed.
With most infrastructure now open-source I think the penalty for introducing a new ISA is a lot less burdensome. If you port LLVM, GCC, and the JVM and most businesses could use it in production immediately without needing emulation that helped doom the Itanium.
I agree that cache efficiency is important. You can never have enough L1. It seems to me that compressed instructions ala ARM Thumb and RISC-V Compressed give you most of what you really want. One of the problems in the CISC era was that the compilers actually didn’t generate many of the fancy instructions, so it’s unclear whether you’d get back much from decoding massive amounts of micro-ops and letting the superscaler scheduler work it out if the compiler is mostly generating the simple instructions anyway. That said, the compilers of that era were also less sophisticated, so maybe we’d do better now.
In the end, though, I don’t see CISC making any significant come back, other than perhaps in embedded where code size is definitely important and speeds are generally lower and multi-cycle execution is ok. But it feels like we already have all the ISAs we need to cover that space pretty well already.