I agree with both comments here. I wonder what the plausibility of fully autonomous trucking is in the next 10-30 years...
Is there any saying that exists about overestimating stuff in the near term and long term but underestimating stuff in the midterm? Ie flying car dreams in the 50s etc.
I remember Bill Gates said: "We overestimate what we can do in one year and underestimate what we can do in ten years".
Not Musk. He promised full autonomy within 3 years about 10 years ago.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...
Musk and Gates have very different philosophies.
Gates seems more calm and collected having gone through the trauma of almost losing his empire.
Musk is a loose cannon having never suffered the consequences of his actions (ie. early Gates and Jobs) and so he sometimes gets things right but will eventually crash and burn having not had the fortune of failing and maturing early on in his career(he is now past the midpoint of his career with not enough buffer to recover).
They are both dangerous in their own ways.
If it were about the costs for employees, you could ship it with the railway. That simply isn't the reason.
> ... but underestimating stuff in the midterm? Ie flying car dreams in the 50s etc.
We still don't have flying cars 70 years later, and they don't look any more imminent than they did then. I think the lesson there is more "not every dream eventually gets made a reality".