10% chance at millions fresh out school sounds great!

If you think "exit" automatically means millions, you've probably never seen an exit before. Of those that exit, the majority of startups get almost $0 for the common shareholders. I continue to believe that a lot of YC's alpha comes from the fact that they are very good at angling people toward small exits where they basically make no money but YC recovers their investment.

10% of 0.01% of people is probably closer. 0.01% is probably way to high even.