AI 100% does currently improve productivity when used correctly. You can say that's a no true Scotsman, but you can look at my company GitHub page to see that I'm delivering.

AI delivers results when you understand its characteristics and build a workflow around it designed to play to its strengths. AI doesn't deliver huge results when you try to shoehorn it into AI unfriendly workflows. Even if you took the Stanford 95% study on its face (which you shouldn't, there are a lot of methodological issues), there are still 5% of projects that are returning value, and it's not random, it's process differences.