The penalty is upsetting Trump if they try to pretend they're doing it.

Sure, but this is always a risk with him. Maybe you buy $100B of natural gas, but have the temerity to regulate an American company he likes and he slaps you with punitive tariffs. Or he doesn't like something else with your domestic politics. He's not a rule-based actor or cares about anything but loyalty and subservience to him.

I'm guessing a lot of of people/countries are aiming to just string him along as long as possible.

Also he probably won't be around that long.