> now we'll need 1 to write those and 9 to write more complicated stuff.
Or simpler :) I'd argue that in the past we needed more programmers for more complicated stuff (more hand-rolled databases, auth solutions etc. - a lot stuff was reinvented in each company), now we need many more people to glue some libraries and external solutions together.
The future could look similar, a lot of LLM vibe coders and a handful of specialized fixers.
Who knows though. Real life has a lot of inertia. One will probably do just fine writing just enterprise Java or React (or both!) for the next 30 years. I plan to be dead or retired in the next 30 years.
I plan to retire in the next 10-15 years and then 'grudgingly' accept very large checks to teach noobs to be competent enough to replace the recently-retired seniors, since companies are and will continue to, foolishly not hire and develop junior engineers anymore. It seems to me like most firms have almost involuntarily placed an enormous unhedged bet on LLMs being able to do the job of senior and staff software engineers by 2030-2035, which I'd say is certainly a possibility but boy howdy is it going to be an expensive bet to lose if they're wrong.