I got to six figures by assuming that a human taxi driver makes maybe $30-40k at a guess, and an autonomous car can work 24/7. 6 figures is $100k minimum.

So yeah, right now they'd have to be at ten cities x 300 cars each to hit 300M revenue, but there's still plenty of room for growth. Or should be, assuming the Waymo model isn't maxed out supporting the current handful of cities.

But I'm not convinced they have to hit cost parity with personal cars, because the huge advantage is you can work and drive (or be driven). If NYC and LA rush-hour congestion time becomes productive time, there's your billions.

I drive but prefer to take transit for this reason - some of my colleagues are able to join work calls effectively while driving, but for whatever reason my brain doesn't allow that. Just paying attention to calls is enough, you want me to pay attention to the road AND the call?