I'd expect every new generation of computers to not last as long as the last one, we keep reducing the transistor size and that means more fragility. I'm half surprised modern GPUs make it through shipping without melting from static.
My guess is that the most long lived computer gen could be one that still uses through hole components. Not a very useful machine by any metric though I bet.
On the flip side, a lot of those old through-hole memory chips have failed. I'm not sure what the mechanism of action is, but it likely leads back to some kind of (at the time unknown) manufacturing defect. Every new generation requires higher purity and better quality control (because those tiny transistors are less tolerant of defects). If we optimized for longevity rather than flops per dollar or per watt, we would likely keep making the same hardware for a very long time, optimizing the process along the way and learning about the pitfalls. Maybe you can see such things in the military or industrial computing spaces.
We have gone through this if you look at my comment history.
Yes you can do everything, but not without added complexity, that will end up failing faster.
We have peaked in all tech. Nothing will ever get as good as the raw peak in longevity:
- SSDs ~2011 (pure SLC)
- RAM ~2013 (DDR3 fast low latency but low Hz = cooler = lasts longer)
- CPUs ~2018 (debatable but I think those will outlast everything else)
I'd expect every new generation of computers to not last as long as the last one, we keep reducing the transistor size and that means more fragility. I'm half surprised modern GPUs make it through shipping without melting from static.
My guess is that the most long lived computer gen could be one that still uses through hole components. Not a very useful machine by any metric though I bet.
On the flip side, a lot of those old through-hole memory chips have failed. I'm not sure what the mechanism of action is, but it likely leads back to some kind of (at the time unknown) manufacturing defect. Every new generation requires higher purity and better quality control (because those tiny transistors are less tolerant of defects). If we optimized for longevity rather than flops per dollar or per watt, we would likely keep making the same hardware for a very long time, optimizing the process along the way and learning about the pitfalls. Maybe you can see such things in the military or industrial computing spaces.
What metric are you using to determine peak? Just long life?
I don't know about most people, but how long a wafer of silicon keeps working past its obsolescence, is just not that important
It is when we peak in nanometers too.