Here's a really nice overview: https://www.diw.de/documents/vortragsdokumente/220/diw_01.c.... (or the good old Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunkelflaute#Droughts )

I love the conclusion from you overview:

> "Nuclear power mitigates storage needs, but only to a limited extent"

So you suggest we spend 10x as much to not solve Dunkelflautes.

This truly is getting quite sad. Who cares if the 1 in 36 year event is solved with fossil fuels, biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen or whatever?

We are literally talking the scenario happening once during a nuclear plants economic lifespan.

Do you build technologies which are extremely heavily weighted towards CAPEX to solve a problem happening once?

Of course not. You minimize CAPEX and accept high OPEX to solve it. Which might be rationing for a week in the 40 year period.

The study of course did not specify what level of renewables they implemented. What would a 20% overbuild lead to? 50%? It would still cost a fraction compared to new built nuclear power.

This is what is so funny with you nuclear bros. You cry about Dunkeflautes and reliability but then propose literally the worst solution for extreme events.

Take a look at France. They generally export quite large amounts of electricity. But whenever a cold spell hits that export flow is reversed to imports and they have to start up local fossil gas and coal based production.

What they have done is that they have outsourced the management of their grid to their neighbors and rely on 35 GW of fossil based electricity production both inside France and their neighbors grids. Because their nuclear power produces too much when no one wants the electricity and too little when it is actually needed.

Their neighbors are able to both absorb the cold spell which very likely hits them as well, their own grid as the French exports stops and they start exporting to France.

> This truly is getting quite sad. Who cares if the 1 in 36 year event is solved with fossil fuels, biofuels, synfuels, hydrogen or whatever?

Because it requires maintaining costly infrastructure that needs to provide more than 100% of normal generation for these cases.

And even without considering _extreme_ events, normal weather variations still require multi-day storage capacity which is _still_ prohibitively expensive.

> The study of course did not specify what level of renewables they implemented. What would a 20% overbuild lead to? 50%? It would still cost a fraction compared to new built nuclear power.

Renewables need 10x (1000%) overbuild to ride through Dunkelflaute in Germany. And that's a conservative estimate.

> But whenever a cold spell hits that export flow is reversed to imports and they have to start up local fossil gas and coal based production.

Why are Greens always lying? https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20240118-france-reclaims-title-...

France had a rough 2 years when they took offline multiple plants due to deferred maintenance and bad luck. Now it's back to normal.

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