I think the biggest wrench in the works was just that UHD BD was effectively a dud due to streaming https://www.hdtvtest.co.uk/be/uploads/Screenshot_from_2025_0.... I think I hear/see more about it from pirating communities and notes about the death of SGX than actual players and disc in stores or friend's houses.
I'm sure that's part of it, but, anecdotally, I've been finding more and more people lately that have started wanting movies and TV shows on physical media, including UHD. I think the market might actually be growing right now.
I can't find anything newer than https://www.tomsguide.com/tvs/4k-blu-ray-sales-are-in-free-f..., which says such sales are not only in free fall but major stores are no longer planning on selling them and no new Blu-ray players at all were announced at CES for the first time.
I'd like to believe enough people are changing their minds (nothing is higher quality), but it's likely already accounted for in the $293 M and continuing declines. The one bump seemed to be 2022 UHD BD outselling 2020/2021 numbers, but that's probably more an artifact of COVID 19 drop and slight rebound given the following years dropped quicker than ever.