>Unfortunately, absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence.
A study showing no statistically significant effect is not an absence of evidence, it is evidence of the absence of a large effect.
>Unfortunately, absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence.
A study showing no statistically significant effect is not an absence of evidence, it is evidence of the absence of a large effect.
Or it's evidence that the effect can't be measured, which is what I'm trying to say.
I honestly don't understand how you would even attempt to measure something like this. There's no counterfactual. How can you possibly know what sales would have been without piracy?
This study appears to be relying on survey results. That seems questionable to me, because no one wants to admit "I totally would buy more books if piracy wasn't an option, but I choose piracy because I like having money and I think authors deserve to starve." I'm exaggerating for the sake of effect, but really, how can anyone ever know what they would have purchased under different circumstances? It's human nature to self-rationalize your actions. And yet, despite this, the study still didn't find statistically significant results!
Maybe if one country ever manages to truly cut off access to piracy websites, and there's another economically and sociologically similar country where piracy remains readily available, it will be possible to get some valid data on this question. I mostly hope this doesn't ever happen, because while I'm not a fan of piracy, I am a fan of the free internet!