No justification for a $100k number. For $100k a year or about $8k a month, you will end up using 1B tokens a month (that too a generous blended $8 per million input/output tokens including caching while the number is lower than that). Per person.

I think there is a case Claude did not reduce their pricing given that they have the best coding models out there. There recent fundraise had them disclose their Gross margins at 60% (and -30% with usage via bedrock etc). This way they can offer 2.5x more tokens at the same price than the vibe code companies and yet break even. The market movement where the assumption did not work out was about how we still only have claude which made vibe coding work and is the most tasteful when it comes to what users want. There are probably models better at thinking and logic, especially o3, but this signals the staying power of claude - having a lock in, it's popularity, and challenges the more fundamental assumption about language models being commodities.

(Speculating) Many companies woudl want to move away from claude but cant because users love the models.