I do not understand how you think those numbers work.

I said "10-15%" of the moon being disassembled in my (current natural) lifetime, as in the break-even point for a bet is me spending $20 today for a chance you pay me $133-$200 on my deathbed. (I don't expect you to want to do that just because your odds for this are even lower, so you'd only want to take the other side of a 1:10 payout ratio if you thought it was 90% likely to be disassembled, the point is the breakeven point for positive expected returns is return ≥ cost * probability even before time discounted value of money and why would I want more money when I die).

As for hedging, isn't that normally done for negative outcomes? If so, what's the downside here?

A VN replicator on the moon is unambiguously harder than one on Earth (existence proof: life only found on one of them), so if the D6-to-D10 dice roll says "success!" for the moon, the mere existence of the tech will also radically transform what money even means down here on earth.

Surely the hedge to make against it is what to expect if we don't maintain the current rate of tech development that makes such an outcome even this likely? And the hedge for that looks somewhere between "prepper" and "political economist"?