If Nadella grows Microsoft into the AI era as fast as Gates did in the Desktop era, it would become a 100 trillion dollar company within the next ten years:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/marek-gibney_microsofts-story...
If Nadella grows Microsoft into the AI era as fast as Gates did in the Desktop era, it would become a 100 trillion dollar company within the next ten years:
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/marek-gibney_microsofts-story...
If I place a grain of rice on the first square of a chess board and double the amount on each step, I'd have 18 quintillion grains of rice.
It happens.
Life started with self-replicating molecules. And ramped up all the way to structures like the human body which consists not just of quintillions of molecules but of billions of quintillions of molecules.
18 quintillion grains of rice? That is not going to happen.
Just for reference, 18 quintillion grains of rice is roughly 500 times the global production of rice in 2022.
Nadella is no Gates and Ballmer wasn't either. There is only one Bill Gates and I doubt history will repeat itself.
It's a fun what if, I guess.
And even if Gates were there, is his luck still the same: I see constantly attribute to work and intelligence what is also a big chunk of luck and opportunities. Yes he seized it, but could it do it again? How much was luck?
Related: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dz2vRqxf0HI&pp=0gcJCccJAYcqIYz...
That number seems completely arbitrary. Why not $10 trillion or $1 quadrillion?
Because, as can be seen in the chart, during the desktop era, Microsoft grew at 60% per year.
Growing at 60% per year for ten years is a factor of slightly over 100.
Microsoft's overall value was also much more tied to their performance in the desktop market. The whole company can grow at 60% yoy if 60% of the company doubles in value. AI is not bringing them any revenue, and double nothing is still nothing.
There is only $500T wealth in the entire world. You're saying in 10 years, Microsoft will be worth 15-20% of the entire world?!
I did not make any prediction. I made a calculation. About the market cap of MS if it grows into the AI era as fast as it grew into the Desktop era.
You seem to assume that the global wealth is static. If that is the case, how were those $500T created in the first place?
It's not static, global wealth been growing at 3.8% per year for the past 25 years, which is historically quite a high rate. 10 more years at that rate would be 50% growth, or $750T.
The numbers you're talking about aren't feasible. MSFT grew that fast into the Desktop era because it was starting from a much smaller number. You can grow from $400m to $40b, but you growing from $40b to $4T is a much different story (and remarkable that they were able to do that!). Growing from $4T to $100T is not only unprecedented but unimaginable.
So you might be making a calculation instead of a prediction, but it's a worthless calculation. You may as well extrapolate the 10x weight gain of an infant to an adult and calculate that their weight at middle-age will be 1000 pounds.
Windows Desktops were basically a monopoly. There are currently no monopolies in the AI era, and I wouldn’t even consider MS a first-tier competitor.
Finally Dr. Evil's 100 billion ransom can be paid with Microsoft shares without crashing the economy!
https://frinkiac.com/meme/S08E11/289555.jpg?b64lines=SUYgVEh...
Microsoft lose their chance at mobile/ads era, they better get shit together if they didn't want to be next IBM
Nadella is a glorified excel salesman. He has no vision about the future of technology.
I have my doubts that any big tech leadership has visions for technology anymore. We seem to be heading straight to a boring tech dystopia, at least if the current enshittification trajectory continues.
I would say that Zuc has vision when compared to his counterparts.
To be clear, I do not _like_ the vision on a lot of fronts, especially around privacy, but there are a few points that are much less risk averse. The amount of money dumped into the metaverse shows they are willing to try some outlandish things to see if they stick. I don't see that attitude from any of the other big ones outside of more ways to bolt AI onto everything they ever wrote or feigning interest in something new like Apple Vision.
In a field of very mid players, he actually ends up standing out.
So Microsoft would be multiple times the GDP of the biggest economy in the world?
GDP is not static.
In the 80s, when Microsoft went public, the US GDP was under 5 Trillion.
So it's 6x since then and people expect Microsoft to 25x.