Nobody lies about the number st the end but also almost nobody understands the math behind it. The input are fuzzy numbers which later may be known more accurately (e.g. state data coming in later). They are weighted by historical importance that may drift. They may be computed indirectly from other statistics. and last but not least there seems also some tendency whether cultural or political to be optimistic.

The size of the negative surprise this time is worrying raising the distinct possibility that the part of the model which is extrapolating from the past is insufficient and reality shifted a lot more.

Under the Biden administration, the jobs reports were usually rosy, and then a few months later would be revised downwards. This suggests one of:

1. collecting jobs data is a fuzzy thing and guesses are made

2. reporting jobs data is subject to political influence