> "The only reason space has been managed decently well until now is because most of it was done through the US and Europe that have very strict regulations around safety. Don't expect this good behaviour to continue."
That's a very ahistoric narrative. There's been *zero* regulation around space debris in either the US or Europe, for almost the entire space era up until now—most of it isn't in effect yet. Far from being "strictly regulated", US space operates recklessly with regards to space debris. One ongoing example: spent (ULA) Centaur upper stages have exploded in orbit in four separate incidents since 2018, due to ULA's negligence in correctly passivating/deenergizing them. Which they were never obligated to do anyway—not by regulation,
https://spacenews.com/faa-to-complete-orbital-debris-upper-s... ("FAA to complete orbital debris upper stage regulations in 2025")
The reality is that space debris is a less consequential problem than you'd get from reading HN; the early players in space could, and did, get away with being extraordinarily negligent.
I think you just argued my point. These are the countries that have the most rules. We've effectively relied on NASA being very careful until recently (yet we still have issues of recklessness and carelessness), but that is not gonna fly (pun intended) going forward.
> There's been zero regulation around space debris in either the US or Europe
I present to you Project West Ford [1], and its influence on the original creation of the Outer Space Treaty. Though the wording of the treaty itself makes little mention of space debris explicitly, it's indeed part of the treaty. But the mild wording and weak enforcement are insufficient to deter recklessness.
- Article I – Freedom of Use and Access
- Article IX – Due Regard and International Consultation
- Article VI – International Responsibility
- Article VII – Liability
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_West_Ford