Let's look:
GPT-1 June 2018
GPT-2 February 2019
GPT-3 November 2021
GPT-4 March 2023
Claude tells me this is the rough improvement of each:
GPT-1 to 2: 5-10x
GPT-2 to 3: 10-20x
GPT 3 to 4: 2-4x
Now it's been 2.5 years since 4.
Are you expecting 5 to be 2-4x better, or 10-20x better?
How are you measuring this improvement factor? We have numerous benchmarks for LLMs and they are all saturating. We are rapidly approaching AGI by that measure, and headed towards ASI. They still won't be "human" but they will be able to do everything humans can, and more.