Public sector migrations from an incumbent may the hardest ones of all. Most migration projects fail, but over time, they harden the target platform sufficiently well that eventually one works. And then another one does. And so on, until the target becomes so solid that people no longer choose the source in the first place.

The first Solaris to Linux migrations were horrible. The first prem to AWS migration moves sucked. So it goes.

However, in public sector, failure poisons the well. The peanut gallery claims waste of taxpayer funds. The incumbent starts astroturfing and lobbying against the target. Its an absolute shitshow. Other public sector entities, without the ruthless commercial imperatives that might override fear in a commercial environment, fear to jump in. And the whole thing wilts.

It will be very interesting if the fear of US hegemony is finally enough to overcome the fear of failure.