https://ourworldindata.org/part-one-how-many-people-die-from...
"Cold deaths vastly outnumber heat-related ones, but mostly due to “moderate” rather than extremely cold conditions."
https://ourworldindata.org/part-one-how-many-people-die-from...
"Cold deaths vastly outnumber heat-related ones, but mostly due to “moderate” rather than extremely cold conditions."
Maybe read the second part of this analysis? https://ourworldindata.org/part-two-how-many-people-die-from...
Cold deaths will decrease in high-latitude countries (which tend to be sparsely inhabited) but heat deaths will increase in low latitude countries (i.e. places like India). The exact effects of this will depend on political factors (adaption), but it is unlikely that the decrease in cold deaths will compensate the increase in heat deaths. Also, the people dying from heat will still be dead.
That's a useful baseline for future comparisons.
Currently (mostly) cities don't see Death Valley or Marble Bar range tempretures or beyond .. this will change.
~ https://www.climatechangenews.com/2025/07/14/to-help-people-...Extreme heat could lead to 30,000 deaths a year in England and Wales by 2070s, say scientists
~ https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/jul/10/extreme-...
That would be roughly on par with Germany's deaths related to infections contracted in a hospital. That doesn't make it into headlines.
That's just the UK (high latitude), at tempretures lower than current tempretures in Death Valley / Marble Bar.
Give it time for higher tempretures to reach dense urban centres, look to India and equatorial countries that'll experience both high temp and high humidity and you'll see heat exhaustion deaths rise to well past those anglocentric numbers.
The more serious numbers will come from climate related conflict and migration in any case (assuming no change in increasing emmissions, even assuming a flattening to a steady human annual addition).