It will be interesting to see when sodium ion production ramps up in the US and EU. China is far ahead with this. As it was with LFP for the last few years. CATL is actually ramping up production for their second generation sodium ion battery already. They've been producing the first generation for a few years already. Sodium ion is going to be double digit percentages of the battery market in a few years. Like LFP is today. In China at least.
The advantage is not only cost but also longevity. LFP and sodium ion batteries might have decades of useful life. With thousands of charge cycles, you could be charging them on a daily basis and it would be fine. NMC only has about 1000-1500 cycles. Some LFP batteries do 3-4x better than that. Sodium ion even better.
Sodium ion is more useful (relatively speaking) for grid backing than cars. Weight and power density aren't so much of an issue in that application, longevity and price definitely is. So they can probably pivot if the administration starts trying to mess with the electric car market.
> The advantage is not only cost but also longevity. LFP and sodium ion batteries might have decades of useful life.
> NMC only has about 1000-1500 cycles.
200 miles per cycle and you’re at 200,000 miles, which is decades for a lot of people.
Also worth keeping in mind that "degradation" usually means the battery holds 80% of original charge. Basically your range shrinks from 300 miles to 240 miles. Automobile with 240 miles range is still a very useful car.
> when sodium ion production ramps up in the US and EU
The Ultium announcement isn't Li-S related but but number of battery plant announcements over the past 5 years in the US (as well as Japan) have been plants that can support both LFP and Li-S battery manufacturing.
Japanese, Korean, and American automotive and battery vendors have been aligned on this from a capital and IP perspective for a LONG time.
Sodium is not very good chemistry. High degradation for instance.
Citation needed.
CATL is promising 10k cycles for their latest sodium ion cells.