I've seen a lot more employed shitty devs than I've seen unemployed amazing devs. In fact I don't know a single competent developer who has trouble getting work.

This is in Norway, maybe it's different elsewhere.

My observation of the situation in Germany is different: I know quite some quite skilled developers who have/had quite some trouble getting jobs.

The other hand, the bad developers (impostors) who easily found jobs were typically sycophants. On the other hand, many highly skilled developers were rather more stubborn (they can't stand bullshit), very honest, and not "corporate politicians".

There’s low correlation between success and ability once you hit a baseline.

There’s an element of chance, and stuff like leetcode is just a veneer of science over a vibe based process, which conveniently scopes out management culpability. Personally, I think it’s hilarious that Silicon Valley types have essentially enshrined civil service exams for hiring.