I was a bigger fan of the certain doom in 2025, and I think the AI 2030 movement will have better design sense and storytelling. But really I haven’t seen anything that really has the oomph and fire of Tipper Gore’s crusade against youth music.
We need more showmanship, more dramatic catastrophizing. I feel like our current crop of doomers isn’t quite shameless enough to be really entertaining.
A significant thing to keep in mind for non-extinction doomerism is that individual experiences vary greatly. There may be a significant number of people or groups that really do experience what was predicted.
Similar to how the experiences of average rise in temperature (I would prefer if they had used the term "energy") differ greatly dependent on the region.
Also similar to "the country is doing well, look at the stick market and the GDP".
I think everybody who wants to have an actually serious discussion needs to invest a lot more effort to get tall those annoying "details", and be more specific.
That said, I think that "AI 2027" link looks like it's a movie script and not a prediction, so I'm not sure criticizing it as if it was something serious even makes sense - even if the authors should mean what they write at the start and themselves actually take it seriously.
100% agreed! We think about the industrial revolution and the rise of word processors and the Internet as social goods, but they were incredibly disruptive and painful to many, many people.
I think it’s possible to have empathy for people who are negatively affected without turning it into a “society is doomed!“ screed
People should understand that the reason this seemingly fan-fict blog post gets so much traction is because of lead author's August 2021 "fan-fict" blog post, "What 2026 Looks Like":
I can't help but notice that it doesn't matter what DeepCent does because OpenBrain will reach self awareness 6 months before them no matter what. Who needs a profitability plan when you're speedrunning the singularity.
I was a bigger fan of the certain doom in 2025, and I think the AI 2030 movement will have better design sense and storytelling. But really I haven’t seen anything that really has the oomph and fire of Tipper Gore’s crusade against youth music.
We need more showmanship, more dramatic catastrophizing. I feel like our current crop of doomers isn’t quite shameless enough to be really entertaining.
A significant thing to keep in mind for non-extinction doomerism is that individual experiences vary greatly. There may be a significant number of people or groups that really do experience what was predicted.
Similar to how the experiences of average rise in temperature (I would prefer if they had used the term "energy") differ greatly dependent on the region.
Also similar to "the country is doing well, look at the stick market and the GDP".
I think everybody who wants to have an actually serious discussion needs to invest a lot more effort to get tall those annoying "details", and be more specific.
That said, I think that "AI 2027" link looks like it's a movie script and not a prediction, so I'm not sure criticizing it as if it was something serious even makes sense - even if the authors should mean what they write at the start and themselves actually take it seriously.
100% agreed! We think about the industrial revolution and the rise of word processors and the Internet as social goods, but they were incredibly disruptive and painful to many, many people.
I think it’s possible to have empathy for people who are negatively affected without turning it into a “society is doomed!“ screed
its literally just the plot of “Colossus: The Forbin Project” so it isnt even original lol
People should understand that the reason this seemingly fan-fict blog post gets so much traction is because of lead author's August 2021 "fan-fict" blog post, "What 2026 Looks Like":
https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/6Xgy6CAf2jqHhynHL/what-...
This reads like an advertisement for OpenBrain and doesn't seem grounded in reality.
I can't help but notice that it doesn't matter what DeepCent does because OpenBrain will reach self awareness 6 months before them no matter what. Who needs a profitability plan when you're speedrunning the singularity.
I think the general tone is more of a warning than an endorsement.
Checked out when it turned into bad geopolitics fiction.
So this is what the crowd of people who write SCP articles with over 1000 upvotes does in their professional life?
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