Yup. Just because someone's a Nobel Laureate (he's an economist) doesn't mean they're right. Just like I won't let my doctor inform me on tabs vs. spaces.
Economists, businesspeople & their ilk have proven time & time again that 99% of them just throw darts at a board & see what sticks. The only ingredients required are money, connections and an extroversion (height helps too). That's not to say that most scientists don't do the same thing, that is science after all.
I doubt many people at all would have expected even the success of LLMs before Google's attention paper. NLP experienced a huge jump, previous models always seemed to me like handwritten sets of statistical rules stringing together text and now we have trained sets of statistical rules orders of magnitudes more complex...I have no idea what we'll end up with next.
> I doubt many people at all would have expected even the success of LLMs before Google's attention paper. NLP experienced a huge jump
AI doing fantastically better on AI benchmarks is different from AI greasing the wheels of the economy towards greater productivity. Acemoglu doesn't have much to say about the former (he's an economist, after all) and is focusing on the latter.
It is argued even whether and how personal computing has influenced productivity: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox
Suffice to say that even though these technologies might change life to feel radically different -- it remains to be seen how that finally snowballs into overall productivity. Of course, this is also complicated by questions of whether we're measuring productivity correctly.
> Just like I won't let my doctor inform me on tabs vs. spaces.
Tabs for indentation, spaces for alignment. 100% all the way. Anything else is Heresy... ;)
Oh God I knew that offhand would provoke a response like this ha ha. Four space tabs for indentation. Everything space, just like the universe around us.
Hahahaha! Okay. Down-vote fully accepted as totally justifiable... I clearly risked a flame-war by wading into religious territory like "tabs vs spaces"... :rofl:
(Seriously though, tabs all the way for me... It's just less key-presses.)
>Just because someone's a Nobel Laureate (he's an economist) doesn't mean they're right.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-economics-nobel-isn...
"Yup. Just because someone's a Nobel Laureate"
It's also worth pointing out that using technology is not the same as the cohort of people that spend their whole lives building and working with technology and dreaming about where the technology can go.
"It is reasonable to suppose that AI’s biggest impact will come from automating some tasks and making some workers in some occupations more productive."
This person needs the Ghost of AI present and future to come show him a bit more of this tech first-hand (try out Google Flow and try to make a statement like the one above, you won't be able to).
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And oddly, this was just recommended to me on Youtube:
The AI Revolution Is Underhyped | Eric Schmidt (former Google CEO) | TED
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=id4YRO7G0wE