mTLS is going to be a problem soon, arguably bigger than this lifetime reduction. Most server certs today have clientAuth EKU and can be used for mTLS. That stops next year.

It took me awhile to dig up evidence for this, but the closest I can find is that subordinate CA certificates will no longer be allowed to have id-kp-clientAuth EKU [1], however this restriction does not apply to leaf certificates.

[1]: https://googlechrome.github.io/chromerootprogram/#321-applic...