> famines are caused by conflict

And conflicts are frequently caused by the victim getting weak.

> historically by dumb central government

That's what I pointing at.

> overly strong tyrants

They're not strong. Unless you want to define strong in a very narrow sense which simply dumb.

> you see a country being attacked by another and you blame those hard times on the victim while I blame it on the attacker

Such is nature. When a sugar lover gets diabetis, you don't blame diabetis. If a society wants to stay afloat, it has to be able to defend from outsiders.