My prior is that life is not uncommon in the universe, multicellular eukaryotic type life less common and intelligent (whatever that means) life less common still.

If the closest prokaryotic type life is 100 light year away then the the closest intelligent life might is pretty far away.

I base this on almost nothing - other then the time it took for prokaryotic and eukaryotic life to emerge on Earth; which to my mind is surprisingly quick for the former an weirdly long for the later.