The probability of advanced civilization is given the probability of life is quite low itself.

For the overwhelming majority of time life has existed on earth only a minuscule part of it involved civilization. And an even more minuscule part of it involved technology that has a small chance to send a coherent signal to another star.

Our future is easily estimated by the hardness of traveling through space and the demise of our sun. Probability points to the end humanity by way of the death of our star. We are statistically most likely to end.