Out of curiosity, since you appear to be very certain of this, what are you doing personally to deal with this? Are you leaving the country, moving into the hills, building a bunker, etc? I don't mean to sound antagonistic or anything, I genuinely would like to know.
Not OP but of the same persuasion. Personally, I’m working on emigration plans. I don’t really want to live in an authoritarian state. And if I ever have kids, there’s no way I’d want to raise them in this environment.
I should point out, though, that authoritarianism doesn’t necessarily mean that QOL drops for the average person (if you’re not part of a targeted group). Many people live quite happily in Hungary, Turkey, Russia. Local government will chug along as before, stonks might still go up. But you have to internalize a certain resignation over things you can no longer change or talk about, unless you wish to become a dissident and put yourself in danger. I’m not brave enough for that, so I’m opting out of the whole thing.
You're not at all wrong, but you've successfully described my entire life living in the US as a citizen born here. For that whole time we've incarcerated an absurd percentage of the world's prison population. I watched the crackdown on the Seattle WTO protests and Rodney King on the evening news.
Perhaps the defining feature of the modern nation state is a monopoly on violence and power. Been that way my whole life.
not OP: not sure. I'm in California so things can go crazy for a whole other litany of reasons if any single claim of Newsom starts to blossom. It's going to be a crazy ride if no one cheecks Trump early enough.
I'm waiting it out for now. I'm "close" enough to communte to Los Angeles, but otherwise on the outskirts of the county as a whole. It's a weird place for any federal service to go out of their way to exploit.
Yes. The only way Trump is ousted is if Democrats somehow get a supermajority in the House and the Senate and impeach and remove him, which isn't going to happen. Republicans will always close ranks around Trump at this point. He definitely won't leave office peacefully, if at all. What happens after that, I don't know.
Not even close. The whole Republican party is lock step with everything DT says. Not a single member of Congress will oppose him. DT pushes through all kinds of things that they don't want, eg.
RFK is a lifelong granola Democrat with wildly unpopular opinions but every single Republican confirmed him.
Nobody else in the party has this kind of power. Not JD, not Desantis, not the Koch brothers, nobody. When he's gone, it's over.
Trump didn't always have this kind of power; he acquired it. Why do you think it's impossible for another person - especially one that is effectively "officially anointed" as successor by Trump himself - to step into his shoes?
Right now this is impossible because Trump sucks all the air out of the room. But with him gone, I don't see any reason why all those people who voted for him will suddenly not vote for the closest similar candidate, and that voting block is really where his power comes from.
And looking at history, cults of personality often survive replacement of the figure around which they are built - examples are numerous in various dictatorships, just look at North Korea for one that is still ongoing.
Trump was given the power by some invisible forces who have been working for decades to develop plans to destroy the US.
Trump is simultaneously a blunt force tool to destroy our institutions while also being a political wizard that always know exactly how to spin things and is completely impervious to pressure and stress.
I think those background forces know after trump there will not be anyone like him. Which is exactly why everything is being destroyed at such a rapid pace. Their opportunity is short and they are maximizing it. Things will look very different post trump
As an outsider European, Trump certainly has an unusual charisma. I happened to watch some of his tariff press conference while flicking over TV channels, and I get why people are attracted to his public persona. He has this strange hypnotic tone that delivers absolute nonsense in a reassuring way, and goes a bit shouty every now and then when attacking something. For people that actually believe what he says he must really have them hooked.
Along with the other points you made, rarely showing stress, always having a comeback with no care for the truth make him unique.
The House has sole power over impeachments. Simple majority vote. The difficulty is scheduling it, the leadership controls this. A more likely path is four Republicans could make a declaration to caucus with the Democratic party, and change the leadership. Again, simple majority vote.
The Senate has sole power over impeachment trials. The trial and conviction vote have no quorum requirement. Republicans will have to show up and vote to acquit, explicitly, to protect Trump.
The law is clear, upon conviction the president is removed from power. The only power any person has is the power people voluntarily give to him. He can also throw poop if so inclined, he's plenty full of it.
But if not one thing is yielded to him, if without any violence he is simply not obeyed, he becomes naked and undone and nothing, just as when the root receives no nourishment, the branch withers and dies. - Étienne de La Boétie, Discourse on Voluntary Servitude: Why People Enslave Themselves to Authority
The House of Representatives just needs a majority vote to approve the articles of impeachment, but to convict, the Senate requires a two-thirds vote. That's what I meant by a supermajority. My bad for the miscommunication.
Yes for part of the country. Gerrymandering, long lines, distant polling locations... Voting day isn't a holiday, voting hours aren't 24/7, and not all states have laws requiring time off of work to vote. For a lot of red states, elections simply are not fair.
>Do you honestly believe there have ever been _fair_ elections in America?
With a confidence level of some 99.9%+ of votes being legitimate, yes. with 155 million voters in 2024 nationals, that leaves a margin of about 155k illegitimate votes. Elections can be super close (see 2000), but any fraud that went undetected would not sway most American elections. At least not with this electoral college system.
>Do you honestly believe there will not be at least _some_ kind of election in 2028?
Yeah probably. I'm not even sure if Trump will get that far, though. we'll have to see how damning this SAVE act is on women first and if the courts strike this down in the next 18 months or so.
>Even if it's staged, form must be respected.
When has Trump ever done that? most other leaders I disagree with still did this. But not him.
Oh, there will be elections. After all, even USSR and Russia had/have elections of all kinds.
Out of curiosity, since you appear to be very certain of this, what are you doing personally to deal with this? Are you leaving the country, moving into the hills, building a bunker, etc? I don't mean to sound antagonistic or anything, I genuinely would like to know.
Not OP but of the same persuasion. Personally, I’m working on emigration plans. I don’t really want to live in an authoritarian state. And if I ever have kids, there’s no way I’d want to raise them in this environment.
I should point out, though, that authoritarianism doesn’t necessarily mean that QOL drops for the average person (if you’re not part of a targeted group). Many people live quite happily in Hungary, Turkey, Russia. Local government will chug along as before, stonks might still go up. But you have to internalize a certain resignation over things you can no longer change or talk about, unless you wish to become a dissident and put yourself in danger. I’m not brave enough for that, so I’m opting out of the whole thing.
You're not at all wrong, but you've successfully described my entire life living in the US as a citizen born here. For that whole time we've incarcerated an absurd percentage of the world's prison population. I watched the crackdown on the Seattle WTO protests and Rodney King on the evening news.
Perhaps the defining feature of the modern nation state is a monopoly on violence and power. Been that way my whole life.
Any immigrant to the US that doesn't look like the right kind of immigrant, whether citizen or not, should be making plans and moving money.
I'm making plans and moving money already.
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Not OP, but I'm seeking foreign citizenship through prior family history as a mechanism for legally escaping the US should it come to that.
not OP: not sure. I'm in California so things can go crazy for a whole other litany of reasons if any single claim of Newsom starts to blossom. It's going to be a crazy ride if no one cheecks Trump early enough.
I'm waiting it out for now. I'm "close" enough to communte to Los Angeles, but otherwise on the outskirts of the county as a whole. It's a weird place for any federal service to go out of their way to exploit.
Legit inquiry, do you think Trump will last to 2028? I personally don't, but it can go all sorts of ways.
As an aside, I also consider a civil war as "not making it". Having to wage war on the people you lead is fundamentally a failure of all systems.
Yes. The only way Trump is ousted is if Democrats somehow get a supermajority in the House and the Senate and impeach and remove him, which isn't going to happen. Republicans will always close ranks around Trump at this point. He definitely won't leave office peacefully, if at all. What happens after that, I don't know.
Trump's health is a big open question, though.
But even if Trump is out of the picture, that just means we'll get president Vance, which is likely to be even worse.
Not even close. The whole Republican party is lock step with everything DT says. Not a single member of Congress will oppose him. DT pushes through all kinds of things that they don't want, eg. RFK is a lifelong granola Democrat with wildly unpopular opinions but every single Republican confirmed him.
Nobody else in the party has this kind of power. Not JD, not Desantis, not the Koch brothers, nobody. When he's gone, it's over.
Trump didn't always have this kind of power; he acquired it. Why do you think it's impossible for another person - especially one that is effectively "officially anointed" as successor by Trump himself - to step into his shoes?
Right now this is impossible because Trump sucks all the air out of the room. But with him gone, I don't see any reason why all those people who voted for him will suddenly not vote for the closest similar candidate, and that voting block is really where his power comes from.
And looking at history, cults of personality often survive replacement of the figure around which they are built - examples are numerous in various dictatorships, just look at North Korea for one that is still ongoing.
Trump was given the power by some invisible forces who have been working for decades to develop plans to destroy the US.
Trump is simultaneously a blunt force tool to destroy our institutions while also being a political wizard that always know exactly how to spin things and is completely impervious to pressure and stress.
I think those background forces know after trump there will not be anyone like him. Which is exactly why everything is being destroyed at such a rapid pace. Their opportunity is short and they are maximizing it. Things will look very different post trump
As an outsider European, Trump certainly has an unusual charisma. I happened to watch some of his tariff press conference while flicking over TV channels, and I get why people are attracted to his public persona. He has this strange hypnotic tone that delivers absolute nonsense in a reassuring way, and goes a bit shouty every now and then when attacking something. For people that actually believe what he says he must really have them hooked.
Along with the other points you made, rarely showing stress, always having a comeback with no care for the truth make him unique.
Vance is not even close.
It's of course that a future demagogue will rise to power. But it'd be a wholly different movement from maga.
When Trump goes all the smaller factions will compete for the top. That's the typical state.
The House has sole power over impeachments. Simple majority vote. The difficulty is scheduling it, the leadership controls this. A more likely path is four Republicans could make a declaration to caucus with the Democratic party, and change the leadership. Again, simple majority vote.
The Senate has sole power over impeachment trials. The trial and conviction vote have no quorum requirement. Republicans will have to show up and vote to acquit, explicitly, to protect Trump.
The law is clear, upon conviction the president is removed from power. The only power any person has is the power people voluntarily give to him. He can also throw poop if so inclined, he's plenty full of it.
But if not one thing is yielded to him, if without any violence he is simply not obeyed, he becomes naked and undone and nothing, just as when the root receives no nourishment, the branch withers and dies. - Étienne de La Boétie, Discourse on Voluntary Servitude: Why People Enslave Themselves to Authority
The House of Representatives just needs a majority vote to approve the articles of impeachment, but to convict, the Senate requires a two-thirds vote. That's what I meant by a supermajority. My bad for the miscommunication.
The Senate needs 2/3rds of those present. It is not 2/3rds of the membership. They have to appear if they want to protect him.
Military coup when?
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> Do you honestly believe there have ever been _fair_ elections in America?
Yes.
Yes for part of the country. Gerrymandering, long lines, distant polling locations... Voting day isn't a holiday, voting hours aren't 24/7, and not all states have laws requiring time off of work to vote. For a lot of red states, elections simply are not fair.
>Do you honestly believe there have ever been _fair_ elections in America?
With a confidence level of some 99.9%+ of votes being legitimate, yes. with 155 million voters in 2024 nationals, that leaves a margin of about 155k illegitimate votes. Elections can be super close (see 2000), but any fraud that went undetected would not sway most American elections. At least not with this electoral college system.
>Do you honestly believe there will not be at least _some_ kind of election in 2028?
Yeah probably. I'm not even sure if Trump will get that far, though. we'll have to see how damning this SAVE act is on women first and if the courts strike this down in the next 18 months or so.
>Even if it's staged, form must be respected.
When has Trump ever done that? most other leaders I disagree with still did this. But not him.